At present we are at the begining stages of usderstanding how to use gravity readings to do predictive analysis of a variety of events. As this science emerges I feel it will revolutionize our understanding of cosmic, solar and planetary processes.....I have attached an article regarding the development of sea floor spreading centers in the Read Sea...When you look at it related to gravity you begin to see a pattern of stress emerging in the Red Sea area....when you compare that to the historical cycle of earthquakes in the region and the recent Great Quake we have some cause to be concerned about the effect of an earthquake in that region from a number of persectives....

Food for thought


Nucleation of an oceanic spreading center in a continental rift: the northern Red Sea

The northern Red Sea is an amagmatic continental rift in which a mid-ocean ridge spreading center is beginning to develop. The rift consists of narrow continental shelves and a main trough, which forms a series of fault-bounded terraces 20-30 km wide stepping down to a 15-30 km-wide axial depression. Free-air gravity anomalies form a pattern of elongate high-amplitude (50 mGal) highs and lows oriented subparallel to the trend of the rift and extend for 50-70 km along strike with gravity highs located on the seaward edges of the bathymetric terraces Gravity contours are systematically terminated or offset across NE-SW trending zones at which bathymetric contours are also offset. The gravity anomalies display the basement relief under the main trough, interpreted as a series of tilted fault blocks 15-30 km across and roughly 60 km in length separated by accommodation zones which absorb the differential motion between adjacent sets of fault blocks. The axial depression differs from the oceanic "axial trough" of the southern Red Sea in that sedimentary sequences are continuous across it, lineated magnetic anomalies are not present and it is shallower. It is marked by a free-air gravity minimum with a relative amplitude of 30-60 mGal and very high heat flow (300-600 mW/m2). The axial depression often appears to be fault bounded. Deformation of the sediments in the axial depression is more intense and concentrated than in the marginal areas. The axial depression is not only the locus of recent deformation, but is also the location of a series of small axial deeps spaced at 50-75 km intervals along it. Deeps are consistently located almost exactly at the midpoint of segments, halfway between the accommodation zones and are associated with large normally magnetized, dipolar magnetic anomalies. The axial depression is not a continuous axis of deep water as suggested in published descriptions, but is systematically segmented. Both depth and the amplitude of the gravity lows decrease away from the deeps with minima at the accommodation zones. Accommodation zones are not simply saddle points, but also offset the axial depression. The bathymetric and gravity lows associated with deeps do not intersect, but rather overlap without joining. The axial depression thus appears to be divided into discrete, independent segments separated by the same accommodation zones that define the geometry of the continental basement fault blocks within the marginal areas. Within each segment, there is an axial deep located almost exactly half way between the accommodation zones and associated with high-amplitude normally-magnetized dipolar magnetic anomalies which appear to result from large recent intrusions. Lithospheric extension in the northern Red Sea has reached the point where magma is beginning to be produced. This melt is focused at the center of rift segments where it ascends along faults bounding the axial depression to create deeps. We hypothesize that with continued intrusion, the deeps develop into small seafloor spreading cells which propagate and grow together to form an oceanic spreading center. The segmentation of the newly formed mid-ocean ridge is thus inherited from the rift geometry established during continental rifting

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Robert Dunn and Don Forsyth
Department of Geological Sciences, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA

On NOV 22 1995 at the following location 28.826 N 34.799 E a 7.1 earthquake occured this location corresponds to one of the segemnents slipping in the article I posted earlier...

At least eight people killed and 30 injured in the epicentral region, including two killed and 11 injured at Nuwaybi. Damage occurred in many parts of northeastern Egypt as far away as Cairo. One person was killed and two slightly injured at Al Bad, Saudi Arabia. Some damage occurred at Al Bad, Al Ula and Haql, Saudi Arabia. One person died of a heart attack, several people were injured, and substantial damage, power outages, and liquefaction occurred at Elat, Israel. Some damage also occurred at Jerusalem, Israel and Aqaba, Jordan. Feltfrom Sudan to Lebanon. Felt at Baghdad and Mosul, Iraq. Also felt by people in high-rise buildings at Limassol and Nicosia, Cyprus. Possible tsunami observed at Aqaba, Jordan.

One further article of historical quakes follow's...Hence my concern about getting the European Gravity Sensor in Orbit as soon as possible...

Hidden beneath 2 feet of sand and 21 feet of murky water lie the once great Egyptian cities of Menouthis and Herakleion. The cities thrived on commerce entering the Nile River from the Mediterranean Sea. But the prosperity ended abruptly and mysteriously. From the remains left under the sea, archeologists know the people in Menouthis left in a hurry, never to return. At least two catastrophes leveled the cities and plunged them into the Mediterranean more than 12 centuries ago.

To try to learn what happened, the archeologists who discovered Menouthis last year recently called in geological experts. All geologists agree something drastic caused the ground upon which these cities were built to act like a liquid and slide almost instantly into the sea. The geologists vigorously debate why the muddy ground liquefied. One camp favors devastatingly powerful earthquakes as the culprit. The other says the inexorable deluge of the Nile in full flood caused the damage. Despite these disputes, the geologists agree that similar fates could befall coastal cities today with a much greater loss of life and property.

Some archeologists argue that the ruins found at Menouthis are really part of a larger sister city called Canopus, which hosted religious festivals known throughout the ancient world for extravagance and the licentious behavior of the participants. A temple to the goddess Isis made Menouthis the religious center of ancient Egypt and destination of thousands of pilgrims. The discovery of this temple and the location of the ruins led French archeologist Franck Goddio to believe his group had located Menouthis. Nearby Herakleion stood at the mouth of the river Nile, acting as a gateway to the ports beyond. All boat traffic entering the Nile stopped to pay taxes in Herakleion.

In 1998, Goddio went looking in the Bay of Aboukir for these cities that existed only in historical writings. Armed with an x-ray-like instrument called a nuclear resonance magnetometer, Goddio and his team made a magnetic map of the floor of the bay. Trailing the magnetometer behind the boat in a pattern similar to someone mowing a lawn, the scientists detected granite columns lying beneath the sand. Since granite modifies the earth’s magnetic field differently than does the rest of the sandy bottom, the buried columns, and buildings as well, showed up as distinct patterns on the map.

Goddio’s crew found two such patterned areas and made more detailed maps of them. They used an array of high-tech instruments to bounce sound waves off the bottom and paint a picture of the ground below. After mapping, divers swam down 21 feet to remove up to 5 feet of sand. They cleared one 30 by 30 foot area at a time, using a digital global positioning system to determine the exact location of each building and artifact for the archeologists’ records. Once the divers located each object and removed what they could, they uncovered the next patch of seafloor and buried the previous section.

In the course of the magnetic surveys Goddio found in Menouthis a crescent-shaped crack, 115 feet long and 50 feet across at its widest point. The crack or trench was in the clayey ground of the bay, but was totally filled with sand. Scientists would later determine that people, not the sea, had filled the crack with sand. The crack sat directly below a large stone monument.

Divers uncovered two other cracks as well as buildings, temples, and large fallen columns that had once lined both sides of a major street. They also found sphinxes, jugs that stored wine, sculptures, statues, and gold coins and jewelry.

The coins were a key piece of evidence that Menouthis sank quickly. People experiencing gradual ground settling don’t leaveprecious gold coins lying around, Goddio says. The catastrophe that destroyed and sank Menouthis must have occurred sometime soon after 740 A.D., since divers found no coins minted after this date.



Could it be an Earthquake?

In May 22, the last day of the spring 2000 field season, Goddio turned his attention to the second area with an odd magnetic pattern. He suspected that Herakleion, Menouthis’s sister city, lay here. Preliminary surveys showed the sand had buried ruined houses, temples, a port, and large statues. What divers could uncover in that short time revealed statues that had all tumbled towards the south-southwest.

These statues reminded Goddio of fallen columns he had found during the past four years while excavating a sunken section of Alexandria, 15 miles to the west. Since geophysicist Amos Nur of Stanford University had studied fallen columns in Israel, Goddio asked for his help. Nur vividly recalls Goddio’s phone call: “I was sitting here at home. I just came back from Alexandria when Franck Goddio called me at 3:00 in the morning and said ‘Guess what? Remember when we talked about Herakleion? We just checked it out today. We removed some of the sand and we found these five statues—red granite statues—and they look like they’ve fallen in the same direction as we see in Alexandria. I think it’s an earthquake.’”

Nur is convinced that an earthquake was involved in the destruction of Menouthis and Herakleion. During his previous studies in Israel along the Dead Sea Transform, the Holy Land’s version of the San Andreas Fault, Nur had seen countless Roman and Greek columns downed by a magnitude 7.0 to 7.3 earthquake in 749 A.D. Oddly, all these columns lay in the same direction. The Dead Sea Transform, like many other transverse faults involves two sections of land that slide haltingly past each other in opposite directions usually within the same horizontal plane. As the ground on each side of the Dead Sea Transform jerked past each other, columns on the west side of the Dead Sea Transform toppled northward, even as those on the east side of the fault fell southward. The consistency of these orientations with the wrenching ground motions on either side of the fault led Nur to conclude that parallel downed columns are the signature of an earthquake.

The energy of an earthquake resulting from movement along a fault travels in a variety of ways. One type of motion follows the vertical undulations of a sine wave, while another involves a side-to-side shaking. The side-to-side motion leaves its mark on the architecture. As the legs of a stone arch move back and forth, the wedge-shaped keystones in the top begin to fall down. Only an earthquake could leave such a record. In Alexandria, Nur says, “There is quite a bit of evidence for tilted walls, breached arches and repaired walls.”

Even beneath the waves, repaired walls survive in Menouthis, showing that it was rebuilt at least once before its final demise in the 8th century. Divers found at least 50 columns about 20 feet tall and 2.5 feet in diameter, all lying toward the south-southwest. This evidence, along with a row of collapsed columns along the half-mile stretch of ancient Alexandria’s main road still on land, are proof that earthquakes have hit Alexandria repeatedly in the past, Nur says.

But how did these destroyed ancient cities end up underwater? In coastal areas, like Alexandria, earthquakes can lead to the ground falling into the water. The 1999 Kocaeli earthquake near Izmit in Turkey is one example. Whole sections of the town of Golcuk fell nearly six feet into the Mediterranean Sea. Several thousand people died because their homes sank. Residents who survived the devastating drop into the sea had to be rescued by boat from the second floor of their homes. Geologists call this downward movement of the ground “subsidence.” All scientists looking at why the Egyptian cities sank agree that at least 16 feet of sudden subsidence plunged the cities into Aboukir Bay.

As divers excavate more of Herakleion in the next field season, beginning in April 2001, Nur hopes to find further evidence. If the team finds partially collapsed arches or skeletons of people crushed by falling buildings, that would lend credence to the idea that an earthquake is responsible, Nur says.

In trying to determine which earthquake could be the culprit, Nur points out that more than one earthquake could have struck. “We know in the 8th century that there was a big earthquake,” he says. “There is a little bit of evidence for an earthquake in the middle of the 3rd century.” And a magnitude 6.7 to 7.0 earthquake centered off the southern coast of Crete caused widespread damage in 365 A.D. It also generated a gigantic wave, called a tsunami, that drowned thousands of people in Alexandria.

There are, however, difficulties with the simple explanation that an earthquake drowned the cities. “The problem with an earthquake in Alexandria is that it isn’t near any plate boundary or known fault,” Nur says. While scientists knew other areas around the Mediterranean—Italy, Greece, Turkey and the Middle Eastern countries—were susceptible to earthquakes, they thought Alexandria was safe. “It is a challenge. Where is the plate boundary?” Nur asks.

Nur proposes the locations of two possible faults that could be responsible. The first parallels the northern coast of Africa just offshore in the Mediterranean Sea. The other begins in the Gulf of Suez, running northwest through the gulf and into the Mediterranean Sea. Both proposed faults run through Alexandria. Nur believes a magnitude 5.6 earthquake that occurred in 1955 along his proposed second fault is proof the fault exists.

In coastal areas, like Alexandria, earthquakes can lead to the ground falling into the water. The 1999 Kocaeli earthquake near Izmit in Turkey is one example. Whole sections of the town of Golcuk fell nearly six feet into the Mediterranean Sea.

Since transform faults often have some vertical displacement along them, ground on one side of the fault could drop several feet during an earthquake. Nur says however, that such vertical faulting probably isn’t the sole culprit in the cities’ demise. Subsidence triggered by other processes probably accompanied vertical movement along a fault. Slumping, the movement that dumps hillsides into the sea or across roads during bad rainstorms, was likely involved, he says. And liquefaction—the process by which sandy or silty soil turns to soupy quicksand when shaken—must have occurred, Nur says.

Liquefaction stems from a buildup of water pressure in the spaces between grains of sand or silt. Like marbles in a bag, grains of sand have air spaces around them, even when the grains are packed tightly. In sands near the coast, water often replaces the air, though the grains of sand still touch. If enough water squeezes in between the sand grains, they will no longer touch each other. With one small push, everything starts moving: what once felt like land acts just like a liquid.

Field geologist and earthquake consultant William Lettis agrees with Nur that liquefaction and slumping occurred. However, he questions the faults that Nur proposes. For example, he sees no signs of an east-west fault in the Mediterranean along the North African coast. Many episodes of faulting with huge motions along the fault would be necessary to produce the subsidence the archeologists see, Lettis says. “That amount of offset will be preserved in the landscape for thousands of years,” he says. “There is no evidence whatsoever of any fault producing that magnitude of offset.” Further, global positioning system (GPS) data show that the land on either side of Nur’s proposed second fault is moving at the same rate in almost exactly the same direction instead of at different rates.

For those reasons, Lettis does not think an earthquake could have occurred near Aboukir Bay. He’s not willing, however, to let earthquakes off the hook. He says that large, long-lasting earthquakes some distance from a site could set up the right kind of conditions to cause liquefaction of soils far from the earthquake’s epicenter. “You need many, many cycles of ground shaking, on the order of tens of seconds to minutes, to get liquefaction,” he says. A magnitude 9 earthquake along the well-known subduction zone south of Cyprus, or a magnitude 7.5 to 8 earthquake along the Dead Sea fault, could cause liquefaction in the Bay of Aboukir, Lettis says. Both quakes have occurred in the past.

Could a Flood be the Culprit?

Other researchers see another cause entirely. “While an earthquake may have occurred, I don’t think one is required to explain the sinking of the cities,” says Nile expert Daniel Jean Stanley, senior oceanographer for the Smithsonian Institution. The muddy and soupy ground underneath Herakleion and Menouthis is indeed a likely candidate for liquefaction, Stanley says. The cities sat only a few feet above sea level, and the Nile’s annual flood covered parts of them with water. “Why anyone would want to build cities on a marsh is beyond me,” he says.

He suspects that the strong currents of a river in full flood caused the devastation in the Bay of Aboukir. Based on evidence in the sand and silt of the Nile delta and records of the height of the Nile River, Stanley believes that heavy flooding in 741 and 742 A.D. caused the ground to fail. Egyptian landlords kept accurate records of the Nile’s height in Cairo; the water level determined the size of a farmer’s harvest and, consequently, how much of a tax the landlord could exact. These records show either one or two floods in 741 and 742 A.D., right after the 740 date of the latest coins found in Menouthis.

When rivers flood, Stanley says, the velocity of the water can double. That allows the river to carry six times as much sand and silt. The tumbling and turbulent waters laden with abrasive sediments scour the channel. Add the extra weight of the floodwaters heavy with sediment, and the soil beneath can fail, Stanley says. “It takes very little to trigger liquefaction under these circumstances,” he says.

During flood times, rivers can change course by abandoning previous channels and forging new ones. Data show that the Canopic branch of the Nile, which flowed next to Herakleion, has moved eastward over the past thousand years. Today no channel of the Nile flows into the Mediterranean through the Bay of Aboukir. Stanley says he thinks the 741 and 742 floods could have helped shift the course of the Nile.

During flood times, rivers can change course by abandoning previous channels and forging new ones. Data show that the Canopic branch of the Nile, which flowed next to Herakleion, has moved eastward over the past thousand years. Today no channel of the Nile flows into the Mediterranean through the Bay of Aboukir. Stanley says he thinks the 741 and 742 floods could have helped shift the course of the Nile.

The three cracks divers found in Menouthis provide another clue supporting the flooding theory, Stanley says. From observations made while diving on one of the cracks, he believes these are crown cracks, a common feature found in deltas around the world. Due to unstable ground beneath the surface, a relatively small section of the delta caves in on itself causing blocks on the surface to sink down. Crown cracks form along the edges of the collapsed depression.

“We are finding these cracks and trenches exactly where we are finding architectural remains,” Goddio says of the cracks in Aboukir Bay. “Where there are no architectural remains the land is flat and undamaged, which goes well with what Professor Stanley is saying here.” Stanley says the weight of the buildings could have contributed to the growth of the cracks, but more fieldwork is needed to be sure.

Stanley sees evidence of another process common at the river mouths of some deltas: cone-shaped structures called mud diapirs. From the data he’s collected, Stanley notices that deep layers of buoyant mud have squeezed their way up to the surface, much like a mud volcano under the ground. These diapirs are made of soft, mushy mud, which cannot hold the weight of a stone building. At least one diapir flowed upward under a temple and likely caused the ground to fail, Stanley says. Since the disrupted layers of sediments occur just under the temple in Menouthis, Stanley says he does not think a fault is involved. “Earthquake faults aren’t that site specific,” he says.

Stanley claims he’s found undisputed signs of liquefaction. He uses a technique called carbon-14 dating to determine the age of plant remains trapped in Menouthis’s foundational muds. Under normal conditions mud gets progressively older as scientists dig down through each layer, since the most recently deposited goo sits on top. However, surface samples collected near the temple in Menouthis show muds 2000 years old jumbled together with muds 6000 years old. In some places, the older mud was on top—a clear sign the whole lot had been overturned and stirred up. Stanley was surprised to see such a wide range of ages. “One might expect to have a couple of hundred years represented, not thousands of years,” he says.

When he goes back to Aboukir this spring, Stanley plans to take many mud samples called cores. He’ll look to see which areas have normal, flat layering, and which have a jumbled hodge-podge of layers. And he’ll date the layers to see how old they are. Just as the most recent coins found in Menouthis tell archeologists that it was still standing in 740 A.D., the youngest layer Stanley can date will tell him when the liquefaction occurred.

Dead plants and animals from microscopic plankton to thumb-sized mollusks can also help piece together the history of the delta. If his samples from the bottom of the bay contain plants and animals that live in freshwater, he will know the muds came from the river. If the flora and fauna are the kind that live in salt water, that slice of sediment came from the bay itself. Using these clues, Stanley hopes to reconstruct a picture of ancient Aboukir Bay that makes sense.

Nur welcomes any information that will help to nail down the date of the subsidence to see if it corresponds to the three known earthquakes during the first millennium: one around 250 A.D., the 365 quake and one around 790 A.D.

Goddio, too, eagerly awaits the results from the field season. Scientists won’t be able to tell which theory makes the most sense until more work is done, he says. The truth may lie in a combination of the two theories, he adds. Scientists cannot completely rule out the possibility that a tsunami or an underwater landslide triggered by an earthquake sank the cities, though it appears those causes are less likely than flooding or an earthquake.

Whichever theory proves true, scientists recognize that three thriving cities suddenly fell into the sea. They predict it will happen again. “Alexandria is definitely going to be hit by an earthquake in the future,” Nur says.

Nur cautions that Turkey, China, Japan, and countries bordering the Mediterranean are all vulnerable today. People in Tokyo and the San Francisco Bay Area should also be concerned, he adds, since they are heavily populated coastal areas prone to earthquakes. Heavy damage to the Marina district in San Francisco during the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake came from liquefaction, but residents rebuilt upon the same soft ground as before.

The world’s heavily populated major deltas include the Nile, the Yangtze, and the Ganges-Bramaputra deltas, which combined have over 200 million people living on them. They could be prone to major catastrophes, Stanley says.

The world’s heavily populated major deltas include the Nile, the Yangtze, and the Ganges-Bramaputra deltas, which combined have over 200 million people living on them. They could be prone to major catastrophes, Stanley says. “Any place that you build on soft, water-rich mud, you’re in trouble,” he says. “It doesn’t take much of a trigger. You can have earthquakes, and you can have other phenomena as simple as having a week or two of rain. Look at the critical situation of Venice.”

William Lettis points out that “Golcuk was on a little, tiny creek that built its own delta. They don’t have to be the big, mammoth river deltas like the Nile” for failure to occur. Hundreds of cities could be at risk, he says, since such a large portion of the world’s population lives at river mouths.

These patterns, however, no longer surprise geologists. “There seems to be a rough relationship between population density and earthquake risk. It’s as if people are attracted to earthquake prone areas,” Nur says.

“Actually, when you think about it, it makes a lot of sense.” People need water, low places to build ports, and valleys to build roads through mountains. The same tectonic forces that cause earthquakes control these factors. And “valleys are the places where agriculture could flourish,” Nur says. Bare necessities aside, people are attracted to the natural beauty of tectonically active areas with their soaring mountain ranges and dramatic coastlines.

While people who live in areas prone to natural disasters are aware that a catastrophe could hit at any time, they forget about the risk if a disaster hasn’t struck recently, Nur says. This selective memory loss, combined with the relentless march of population growth, which forces more and more people to live in vulnerable areas, makes for a bad situation. If a Herakleion-sized event struck Tokyo or Bangladesh today, it could kill tens of thousands of people. It’s only a matter of time before mud and water claim another coastal city.

One issue about the open discussion of Science and Religion is that many subjects are and remain classified by a number of governments that are affraid of the effects data would have on the population. With the exception of North Korea and the former Soviet Union no other block of nations supresses free exchange of information than the Middle-Eastern nations.

I note information from a European Source of geological information is as listed below.

Earthquakes and siesmic activity in the Suez and Red Sea area is high with earthquakes occuring on average 25 per day. Next the threat of a major earthquake has been classified as constituting a serious threat to Egypt by seismic experts. You will note except for infrequent reports from the USGS that siesmic data for the Middle East, except for large scale events is missing...classified by the respective governments of the region...Having 23 years of intelligence experience in dealing with this sort of thing and extensive training in geology and satellight based surviellence systems and contacts in the middle east I look for secondary indicators of magnitude 4.0 and greater quakes using the Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale and gravitational relationships through evaluation of projected gavity effects from stellar observations to the Gravity meter at Pecny to perform risk estimates.

When I was in Saudi Arabia a good Saudi friend of mine, and follower of the Sufi path, wanted to take me on a trip through the desert to Mecca through the geological structure of the Kingdom...

The Saudi's I worked with let me know that Osama Bin Laddin was making predictions of Earthquakes and incorporating it into his Teachings....prophecy...the Saudi's I worked with thought it was majic...

Osama is a trained engineer with extensive experience in siesmic and survey techniques and has been on both sides of the great Red Sea rift. He communicates to his followers about earthquakes and buildings falling in coded form, I note he appeared on televison once with his head positioned in front of a map of the Red Sea with the Great Red Sea rift centered behind him...In his teaching he prophetcises earthquakes, all the time knowing the effects even minor earth tremors have on the population where unsound building structure collapses in Egypt are frequent...the worst of mixing science and religon to stir up religious fervor in an under-educated population....

For those that would go down this path understand what happened to me and the assination attempts made against me for delving into this issue...

http://www.ictp.trieste.it/~attia/egseiszone.htm

Levant Transform - The Sinai block and Arabian plate are separated by the Levant transform fault zone, along which left-slip faulting has been observed (Mckenzie et al., 1970). North of the head of the Red Sea, the Levant transform fault extends along the lineament marked by the Gulf of Aqaba and the Dead Sea. Prominent left-slip faulting has been observed on this zone (Garfunkel and et al., 1981). The total amount of left-slip was proposed by Freund et al., (1970) to be 110 km. Recently, Mart and Hall (1984) suggest that much of the Levant motion can be explained as geologically recent opening along the Dead Sea rift and its extension to the north-northeast. According to this model the present-day movement of the Levant zone is both left lateral and extensional. The geomorphologic expressions show a small component of spreading as well as left lateral motion. In general, the boundary is seismically active (see Figure 1). The activity along this zone may materialize as swarms, e.g., the swarms of 1983 and 1993, or as large isolated events e.g., the event of November 22, 1995.



Red Sea Plate Margin - The Arabian plate is continuing to rotate away from the African plate along the Red Sea spreading center. Current sea-floor spreading has been identified as far north as about 20o to 22o north, from the continuous presence of basaltic crust in the axial rift of the Red Sea, and the geophysical signatures of newly emplaced oceanic crust (Cochran, 1983). This axial rift represents the boundaries between the Arabian and African plates. In the northern most Red Sea, north of 25o north, Cochran (1983) notes the presence of rifted continental crust that has been introduced by discontinuous volcanic rocks. The seismic activity in the northern part of the Red Sea is concentrated to the entrance of the Gulf of Suez and Gulf of Aqaba. Earthquakes of magnitudes up to 6.9 were reported, e.g., the event of March 31, 1969. Daggetta et al. (1986) conducted a microseismic survey in eastern Egypt in early 1980 and showed that there is a large number of earthquakes in the most northern part of Red Sea, averaging 25 events per day, with swarms with as many as 200 events per day occurring about once every seven days. These earthquakes occurred at depths varying from 5 to 22 km and had a local magnitude varying from 1 to 3.1.



Suez Rift - The Gulf of Suez is controlled by a rift that extends north west into the African plate from the junction of the Red Sea rift and the Levant transform fault, (Robson, 1971) It separates northeastern Egypt from Sinai Peninsula (Woodward, 1985). The Suez rift may have become active as early as late Mesozoic (Ben-Avraham, 1978) or late Eocene (Robson, 1971) and established its depression by early Miocene (Garfunkel and Bartov, 1977). The Suez rift is a tectonically active structure that is considered to be a subplate boundary that formed as relict of the early opening of the Red Sea. Ben-Menahem et al., (1976) report that the fault motion along the rift combines tensional opening of the rift of about 10 per cent of the rate of the Red Sea, i.e., 1 cm/yr. According to Sofratome (1984) large part of the deformation due to plate interaction is concentrated along Suez rift and its continuation toward the north (essential beneath the Nile Delta) in the Cairo-Alexandria fault zone. Although there are evidences that Sinai subplate is moving independently from African plate (Ben-Menahem et al., 1976), there is not enough evidence to support its probable extension to the Aegean Arc (Sofratome, 1984). The seismic activity along the Suez rift is low and materialize mainly as small events. The largest earthquake (mb = 5.3) occurred within the Gulf of Suez on June 12, 1983.



Megashear zones - A magnetic and gravity trend statistical analysis using the results of all areomagnetic flown and gravity surveys in Egypt was carried out (Mesherf, 1990 and Raid 1977). One of the results is a confirmation of major transcurrent shear zones that belong to the Pelusium Megashear system across Africa (Neev, 1975). Neev postulated a Megashear which extends from Turkey to the south Atlantic (Figure 1), running subparallel to the eastern margin of the Mediterranean Sea then curving southwest across Africa from the Nile Delta to Delta of Niger. These two zones may correspond to the Eastern Mediterranean-Cairo-Fayoum zone in northern Egypt, which recently showed seismic activity. In general, based on the seismicity and major tectonic element depicted in Figure (1), sesimogenic zones in Figure (4) were considered.



The interaction among different plates has created zones of deformation and generated local seismic activity in northeastern Egypt. Some zones (e.g., Suez rift) have their structural continuation beneath the highly populated area of the Nile Delta. Consequently, the existing tectonic regime constitutes a serious threat to Egypt, i.e., it could drag a destructive earthquakes in some parts of the country.

From the Koran and one of the coded messages AL Queada is keyed to in the Koran....

99. THE EARTHQUAKE

In the name of God,
Most Gracious, Most Merciful

99:1 When the earth is shaken to her (utmost) convulsion,
99:2 And the earth throws up her burdens (from within),
99:3 And man cries (distressed): 'What is the matter with her?'-
99:4 On that Day will she declare her tidings:
99:5 For that thy Lord will have given her inspiration.
99:6 On that Day will men proceed in companies sorted out, to be shown the deeds that they (had done).
99:7 Then shall anyone who has done an atom's weight of good, see it!
99:8 And anyone who has done an atom's weight of evil, shall see it.

Dedicated to a Friend of Mine who will remain nameless in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, who walks the Sufi path and looked upon with horror the Teachings and Acts of Osama Bin Ladden

Sufism or tasawwuf, as it is called in Arabic, is generally understood by scholars and Sufis to be the inner, mystical, or psycho-spiritual dimension of Islam. Today, however, many Muslims and non-Muslims believe that Sufism is outside the sphere of Islam. Nevertheless, Seyyed Hossein Nasr, one of the foremost scholars of Islam, in his article The Interior Life in Islam contends that Sufism is simply the name for the inner or esoteric dimension of Islam.

After nearly 30 years of the study of Sufism, I would say that in spite of its many variations and voluminous expressions, the essence of Sufi practice is quite simple. It is that the Sufi surrenders to God, in love, over and over; which involves embracing with love at each moment the content of one's consciousness (one's perceptions, thoughts, and feelings, as well as one's sense of self) as gifts of God or, more precisely, as manifestations of God.

Sufism Online Discussion Group: loosely moderated by Dr. Godlas; currently over 180 international participants from many Sufi orders and perspectives, interested non-Sufis, and scholars.

I hope you are ok Ivan and the 5.6 quake that hit today turns out to be minor.

I have been monitoring activity in CA lately and was looking at the previous quakes down in the Gulf of California and the Volcanic eruption in Mexico along with the activity along the California Faults...I cross referenced it with tidal and solar data and noted we had disruptions of solar activity at the same time of today's quake...and it occured at about the same time that the tidal stresses on the fault reached the weakest point in the tidal cycle...it also occured along with a peak in the earth's geomagnetic field...I also note that the Geologists have stated on record that activity has been recently high on the fault in question.

The psychological stress of a quake is tremendous, couple that to religon and a person who would exploit its after effects like Osama Bin Laddin and you have to shudder...

Food for Thought

I also offer this for those that have been through the quake...It is the counter part in the Bible to the passage about the Earthquake in the Koran...its interpretation like that of the one in the Koran are many...

Psalm 461


46:1 God is our secure shelter; he is truly our helper in times of trouble.

46:2 For this reason we do not fear when the earth shakes, and the mountains tumble into the depths of the sea,

46:3 When its waves crash and foam, and the mountains shake before the surging sea.(Selah)

46:4 The irrigation canals flowing from the river bring joy to the city of God, the special, holy dwelling place of the Sovereign One.

46:5 God lives within it, it cannot be upended. God rescues it at the break of dawn.

46:6 Nations make a commotion, kingdoms are upended. God gives a battle cry, the earth dissolves.

46:7 The Lord, the invincible Warrior, is on our side! The God of Jacob is our protector! (Selah)

46:8 Come! Witness the exploits of the Lord,who brings devastation to the earth!

46:9 He brings an end to wars throughout the earth; he shatters the bow and breaks the spear;he burns the shields.

46:10 He says, "Stop your striving and recognize that I am God!I will be exalted over the nations! I will be exalted over the earth!"

46:11 The Lord, the invincible Warrior is on our side! The God of Jacob is our protector! (Selah)

EARTHQUAKE! I felt this one, south of Palm Springs, CA: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/recenteqsUS/Quakes/ci14151344.htm

Hi Edward, yep, I felt it!

About 8:42 AM, Sunday, June 12, 2005, while sitting in my chair at computer, I felt a transverse wave pass right under me from the East, made my chair wobble like screws were loose, but not of serious magnitude, house groaned a little. I'm about 100 miles west, so by the time the shock got here, it was pretty well dissipated. On TV they reported no serious damage, no known injuries, though it was felt from Los Angeles down to San Diego. I bet they felt it all right in "earthquake valley" down in Anza-Borrego desert, about 20 miles from epicenter. Too bad I missed it!

...Of course, this was not the BIG one... fault it on the Fault, the one beneath my feet.

Ivan

I just did some data checking and during this period of the year the Moon's perigee brings it rather close to earth.

http://www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/pacalc.html

This increases its influence on the earth's graviational field....that coupled to the effects of the Great Quake leave me a little concerned...I did some more checking and coupled to the graviational influence of the sun and moon with lunar interaction being the largest factor involve, we experienced a 5.9 quake in the South Sandwitch Islands region and a 5.7 in SAKHALIN Russia as the graviational forces caused fluxuations in the earth's crust...Currently we have also shifted to storm conditions on the sun and are experiencing major spikes in the earths geomagnitic field and .......hence why I am keeping my fingers crossed for the launch of the European Gravity Sensor ASAP

Food for Thought

All My Best Ed

A magnitude 7.9 has just hit Chile....data is not available at this time but it was on land near the coast...this puts it into the major quake range....I was very concerned about lunar tidal effects on the crust following the great quake it occured right about the peak of high tide...

In another life I would be working at NASA but for fate...now in my study I link the resources of the web to continue my research in esoteric areas, as I move into a new career path...while I study new skills at university, my current employer has me back in the world of security, terrorists and weapons of mass destruction protection measures...I went to the church today...I knew a great/major quake was about to break...I keep being told my experience in the areas of weapons of mass destruction is too valuable...my childhood dream was to work in the space program...or to be a geologist...perhaps some day....

ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA 6.9 Earthquake in the water.

Can this one cause tsunami? Less than a day after Chile's big quake.

Earth's thin crust is on the move!

Yes it is Ivan:)

Its combination of factors but true....risk of Tsunami is low....what I am more concerned about is as oulined below...Cario, Mexico City Delhi...you get the picture....It seems to be turning out that seismic and gravitational data may well become the new atomic secrets of the new age...now image if we could link the space sensors to earth based gravity and siesmic sensors in a grand array...one other thing that has been laughed at for years is electromagnetics...granite the main component of the continental plates reacts differently and has a different electromagnetic signiture than basalt that makes up the sea plates...one of my theories is we may also be seeing geo-magnetic effects due to pressure build up like an old spark gap generator..hence the stories of strange feelings and sensations before a great quake....this along with possible minor but detectable effects in the earths electromagnetic field is also why I watch the reaction of the earths electromagnetic field from the following site.

http://www.sec.noaa.gov/pmap/Plots.html

I also offer the following information, its a sobering but true assessment of what we are facing...in human costs we are looking at many more fatalities and deaths than in previous days...we used to call what is discussed below as a missile gap in the old days...now imagine the after math of one of these great quakes with Osama or another in ascendence in the rubble...and waves of refugees flooding Europe or the United States, Australia or New Zealand...

This article appears in "Opinion" in Seismological Research Letters 75, 695-700. © 2004 Seismological Society of America

Introduction

There is a new “seismic gap” that we—members of the international Earth science and earthquake engineering communities, including members of the Seismological Society of America (SSA) and the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI)—need to know about: the large and growing gap between the seismic risk of rich countries and that of poor countries. We need to know about it because it threatens rich and poor countries alike, because what is being done about it is not enough, and because we are in a unique position to narrow it.

Trends in Global Urban Earthquake Risk
Urban earthquake risk in poor countries is large and rapidly growing. Fifty years ago, the population of the world’s largest earthquake-threatened cities was equally divided between rich and poor countries. Today, there are five times as many people in poor as in rich earthquake-threatened cities. Fifty years ago, the earthquake resistance of buildings in rich countries was better than that of buildings in poor countries, and since then it has steadily improved, while that in poor countries has steadily worsened. Data of the U.S. Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance indicate that the average number of deaths resulting from fatal earthquakes in rich countries decreased by about a factor of 10 between the first half of the 20th century and the last half. This improvement in seismic safety is presumably the result of, among other things, better building and land-use codes and better enforcement of those codes. By contrast, there are indications that earthquakes in developing countries will increase their lethality in the future. At last year’s SSA conference, Roger Bilham described how we should expect in this century an earthquake that will kill as many as one million people in a developing country.

We can see this trend of growing lethality of earthquakes in developing countries by considering large earthquakes in northern India. The 1950 M 8.6 earthquake in Assam killed 1,500 people, but Max Wyss estimates in “Human Losses Expected in Himalayan Earthquakes” (Natural Hazards 32, 2004) that an earthquake of the same size and location today would kill about 45,000 people, an increase of about a factor of 30. The population in this region is estimated to have increased since 1950 by only a factor of 3, thus indicating an order of magnitude increase in the lethality of earthquakes due, presumably, to poorer construction. Similarly, a repeat today of the 1897 M 8.3 earthquake near Shillong would kill, Wyss estimates, 60 times as many people as were killed in 1897. Because the population of the region has increased by only a factor of about 8 since 1897, this suggests again about an order of magnitude increase in the lethality of earthquakes in the region. The replacement of single-story bamboo homes with multistory, poorly constructed concrete-frame structures, often on steep slopes, makes this region perhaps a worse case, but more typical settings (e.g., Kathmandu, Nepal) also indicate a significant worsening of construction practice and urban planning in recent years in cities of developing countries.

The future does not look better. In the next 20 years, the world’s population will increase by 2 billion. Of that 2 billion, only 50 million will be added to industrialized countries, the rest to developing countries. Because of internal migration, from the countryside to cities, the urban population of developing countries will increase by itself by 2 billion people over this period. Imagine that in the next 20 years the combined population of today’s India and China will be added to such cities as Algiers, Cairo, Istanbul, Ankara, Aleppo, Teheran, Tabriz, Mashed, Kabul, Quetta, Rawalapindi, Delhi, Calcutta, Dhaka, Yangon, Manila, Jakarta, Mexico City, Guatemala City, Bogotá, Quito, and Lima. Recall that the 8th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering occurred only 20 years ago. In that same amount of time, 2 billion people will appear in some of the world’s poorest cities and will need places to live, learn, and work. Given the lack of resources and the urgency to build, the quality of construction will, unless something changes quickly, continue to decline.


From a Mexican Site

http://www.cires.org.mx/in_sas_main.php4

Seismological research has shown, since 1973, a high probability for an earthquake greater than M7 to occur on the Guerrero Gap, between Acapulco and Zihuatanejo ports. Furthermore, it is estimated that its effects would be a potential high risk for Mexico City. Since 1984, the Engineering Institute of the National University of Mexico (I de I - UNAM), with the cooperation of international researchers and institutions, participates operating and maintaining the so called Accelerographic Guerrero Array.

The aim of this activity is to gather information to help basic research about effects generated by strong motion events. With the accelerograms obtained in this region during a time interval of 6 years the existence of the Guerrero Gap was confirmed, and at the same time, the possibility for the generation of a high magnitude earthquake. The Guerrero Array recorded the Michoacan earthquake in 1985 however, the so called "Guerrero Earthquake" has not occurred, so far.

All my best Ed

Do Earthquakes Telegraph Their Punches?
Article #542

by Larry Gedney

Alaska Science Forum
May 14, 1982

http://www.gi.alaska.edu/ScienceForum/ASF5/542.html

On May 16, 1960, radio astronomer James Warwick of the University of Colorado noted a strange signal recorded at widely separated receivers in Michigan, Colorado, New Mexico and Hawaii. Charts of the signal were similar at all the sites, and astronomers concluded that the source was not extra-terrestrial, but that it must surround the earth or hang over it like a cloud. At any rate, they knew that it was large in extent and not just a point source.

Six days later, on May 22, one of the largest earthquakes in recorded history struck Chile. This magnitude 8.9 earthquake was accompanied by fault breakage along a line 540 miles (900 km) long.

Twenty-odd years later, the same astronomers who made the original observations have now concluded that the radio signals they recorded in 1960 were likely due to stress-induced microfracturing in quartz-bearing rocks of the Chilean epicentral zone.

Some minerals, notably quartz, are piezoelectric--that is, they produce electricity when subjected to pressure or stress. This same phenomenon is probably also responsible for "earthquake lights," the luminescence sometimes reported (and, on occasion, photographed) in the sky during earthquakes. Freely propagating electromagnetic radiation arising from microscopic rock fractures in quartz-bearing rocks such as granite could also give rise to radio waves in the frequency band at which the radio astronomy receivers were operating in 1960. Laboratory tests by Warwick and other scientists have demonstrated that this can be produced in a controlled environment.

If the correlation actually does exists in nature--that is, if radio wave emissions can be detected from a stressed earthquake volume before an earthquake actually occurs--it could have immense potential for actual prediction.

However, a single example does not a theory make, as Warwick is quick to point out. For example, the anomalous radio signal in 1960 lasted for 20 minutes, six days before the earthquake. What would be the significance of the relative time spans? Also, even though the scientists were aware that it was happening, they were unable to identify the source area. In subsequent years, it has been found that the possibilities could have been narrowed down if the workers had known what they were looking for, but at the time, they were looking in the wrong direction.

The single factor which makes it seem unlikely that this will ever be a workable approach to earthquake prediction is that the Chilean earthquake is the only one with which such electromagnetic emission has been linked.

The great Alaska earthquake of March 28, 1964, was of comparable size (magnitude 8.5) as the Chilean earthquake, but no radio signal whatsoever has been identified which may have been related to it.

There may be a reasonable explanation for this. A considerable portion of the Chilean fault was exposed to the air, rendering more plausible the escape and propagation of fracture radiation. The principal fracture associated with the 1964 Alaska earthquake extended from Prince William Sound southwestward for some 400 miles (700 km) past Kodiak Island. Practically all of this path lies beneath the ocean, which would effectively block the transmittal of electromagnetic radiation from the stressed earthquake volume.

In fact, the same thing may be said about many of the earth's seismically active areas. Most earthquakes occur where oceanic and continental "plates" meet, and very often the major earthquakes of the world occur just offshore.

One last posting regarding possible electromagnetic signiture of earthquakes. The Navy uses a ELF Transmitter system that has great penetrability......it would be interesting to run an analysis of the background noise on the system and correlate it to earthquakes...to see it any type of signiture was detected....unfortunately such systems and their operating parameters are among the most highly classified systems in the United States....if not the world...

http://coldwar-c4i.net/ELF/

Ivan,

I took a look at the data on the 6.9 it matches clearly with tidal effects in terms of time and with previous activity in the area, it just had to give and was looking for enough energy input to cause it to shift....there was a second earthqueake later in Alaska...a 3.9 likely a secondary effect of the 6.9 energy release and tidal effects....

My Best Ed

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Quote:

By Edward Chesky on Tuesday, June 14, 2005 - 04:40 pm:

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Quote:

One last posting regarding possible electromagnetic signiture of earthquakes. The Navy uses a ELF Transmitter system that has great penetrability......it would be interesting to run an analysis of the background noise on the system and correlate it to earthquakes...to see it any type of signiture was detected....unfortunately such systems and their operating parameters are among the most highly classified systems in the United States....if not the world...

http://coldwar-c4i.net/ELF/

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7.0 Off the Coast of Northern California. The lunar gravitational influence as we reach perigee is having its effect more quakes to come.

Hi Ivan

As to the Extremely Low Frequency transmittor it's not a sonar system but a long haul deep penetrating radio transmittor, no danger to Marine life unlike sonar.

I also checked the tidal forces at the point of the 7.0 earthquake and it occured just slightly after high tide, in connjuction with a solar storm and peaks in the earth geo-magnetic field and a few other correlating factors.

Now you see why I am concerned about Mexico City and the rest....

My Best

ED Chesky

Periodicity of Quakes may be shifted as a result of crustal shift.

It appears we may be experiencing a shift in the periodicity of large quakes as result of the crustal shift following the great Sumatra Quake. This coupled to tidal stresses leaves me concerned about further 6.0 or greater quakes in the near term...

If I was a betting man I would start dropping my resume for FEMA and inventorying our national stockpiles of relief supplies and military forces for possible relief operations over the next few years in the near term or in military planning cycles the next two five year budget cycles...


My Best Ed

My prayers go to the folks in California,

I hope and pray everyone is safe and that damage from the 5.3 is minor in Los Angeles.

I remain concerned about further quakes, this last one was again tide to the tidal cycle.

Edward Chesky

So Ed, looks like your prophetic thread is bearing fruit! J

This last one wasn't too bad, just a good wobble on the 11th floor, where my office overlooks the Pacific ocean. We're atop a hill and the building is built on rollers as earthquake precaution, mostly well built back in the 70s, but I do wonder if the BIG ONE hits we might not roll down the hill, or at least into the 4 story garage next door. That structure of concrete is not so well built, so expect my vehicle might get squished one day. Still, it did raise a yelp from everyone when it hit today just before 2 PM (PST), so it's 'roch'n'roll' again.

In fact, the quake was about 50 miles away, and later downgraded to 4.9 M, but we felt it. A quake geologist later said that this raises the odds to about 1 in 20 that a bigger quake will be triggered, and the really big one is overdue anyway. Last 7+ M quake was in 1812, nearly 200 years ago. At home nearby, no new cracks, no damage either. (Had upgraded my earthquake insurance a couple of weeks ago.) No tsunami either, since quake was inland in the mountains... next time?

Here's the latest report: http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/recenteqs/Quakes/ci14155260.htm with lots of aftershocks.

So this makes two felt here in LA area in last 5 days, and counting. Starting with Chile, going up to Rat Island, Alaska, then Japan, a few rollers in California, it's beginning to look like a pattern. I personally think this is shaping up for something more serious, as a Pacific region wide phenomenon, but maybe not yet.

Cheers, Ivan

Thanks for the update Ivan,

It was right in line with my predictions. But for fate I would be working at FEMA. I droped my resume a few times to FEMA but have been turned down for one reason or another.

I also wish to thank you and the editors for allowing me the opportunity to post here. Perhaps I provided warning time for earthquakes and made some difference.

I take it day by day. As a child prodigy it is hard when you get older to let go and realize that the Nobel Prize may never come to you.

I expect the "Big One" earthquake is not far off in the future for LA. When I am not sure...we have had the precursor quakes...I hope it comes long afer we are gone from this earth...

Thanks again for allowing me to post. I am keeping an eye on the Pacific and other area's and will drop a warning if I see something.

All My Best Ed Chesky

Assessment of the San Andreas fault system from a tidal gravitational perspective.

The Great San Andreas fault system is at risk of an earthquake in the near term 5-10 years. The energy stored within the fault has not yet reached the point where tidal gravitational forces are sufficient to induce an earthquake. That said, if there is another major earthquake of 8.5 or greater the effect on the earth's fault systems, as a result of energy transfer is unknown, but likely to impact on the Great San Andreas fault system.

Until that point all we can do is prepare for the worst and update our emergency response plans.

All My Best Ed Chesky

The recent 5.0 quake off the coast of Northern California and Easter Island have me concerned about tidal effects on the Earth's crust as we approach lunar perigee. I would advise a world wide arlert for 2.0 - 5.0 quakes within the next 48 hours as tidal stresses build.

The Easter Island Quake was a 5.4 and came at the juncutre of a small palte in the mid- Pacific that due to tidal stress was most likely triggered by a combination of factors including the previous Great Sumatran Quake


All my Best

Ed chesky

Just an update on Earthquake Alerts due to Gravitational Evalution of Tidal Stress on the Earth's Crust

5.6 quake shakes Tokyo
From correspondents in Tokyo
June 20, 2005
A STRONG earthquake registering 5.6 on the Richter scale has jolted Tokyo, but there are no reports of casualties or damage.

The earthquake, with a depth of 50km, struck underground at 1.15am today local time (2.15am AEST) in Chiba prefecture east of Tokyo.

The Japan Meteorological Agency said it could be felt in the city centre, but there was no risk of tsunami waves.

Japan endures 20 per cent of the world's powerful earthquakes as the country lies at the crossing of four tectonic plates.

If you read the following you will know why sites like this are important and why people are discontented with their governments.

Disaster talks agree action plan

Millions have been affected by the Indian Ocean tsunami

A UN conference has adopted an action plan to reduce casualties and damage caused by natural disaster, following the recent Indian Ocean tsunami.

Delegates from around the world in the Japanese city of Kobe agreed on the need to build early warning systems and make disaster preparation a priority.

But the five-day forum failed to set specific targets or deadlines from implementing the plan.

Last month's tsunami killed more than 160,000 people.

'Framework for Action'

After marathon talks, delegates agreed on the text of a declaration that was then approved at the end of the conference on Saturday.

"It is vital to give high priority to disaster risk reduction in national policy, consistent with [governments' ] capacities and resources available," the declaration said.

"We believe it is critically important that the Hyogo Framework for Action be translated into concrete action at all levels," the document - named after Hyogo Prefecture - said.

The forum also agreed to put the UN in charges of building a tsunami alert system for the Indian Ocean to be operational in up to 18 months.

The plan urges nations to share satellite-based weather forecasting data, draw up hazard maps and work out disaster-response strategies over the next 10 years.

However, UN relief chief Jan Egeland acknowledged that the adopted documents were largely symbolic.

"The decisions of this conference are not legally binding documents but carry a strong moral commitment by states and organisations," Mr Egeland said.

'Slow process'

The action plan also fell short of setting specific targets or funding deadlines.


The deal was struck after lengthy talks

UN representative Salvano Briceno said differences in opinion and a general tone of the plan were inevitable with so many delegates attending.

"When there are so many differences, so many views among countries, it is a slow process," Mr Briceno told the AFP news agency.

"It has to be and the outcome has to be a very general document," he added.

The meeting in Kobe was initially planned to coincide with the 10th anniversary of the earthquake that ravaged the city.

But it took on a new dimension after the 26 December tsunami that affected more than 10 countries.

Update on crustal deformation gravity induced earthquakes.

We have made it through perigee, as tensions relax there may be some additional tidal/gravitational quakes. I am now turning my attention to other problems and thank you the editors of this site for this oportunity to warn the planet of earthquakes and teach it about the systemic approach to disaster forecasting.

All my best

Ed Chesky

Popocatepetl is currently the highest active volcano in the Northern Hemisphere. It is located near Mexico city and some 30 million inhabitants live in proximity to it.

On 29th Janaury 2001 pyroclastic flows travelled 8 km from Popocatepetl Volcano causing glacial melting.

On 30 april 1996 five climbers were killed at the crater rim by an explosion of Popocatepetl Volcano.

On 15 July 2006 at 1505 hours the volcano erupted again sending ash to 24,000 feet. This follows a number of seismic events in Mexico over the past few years and follows the great Sumatran Quake. I suspect tenstions in the fault system beneath Mexico City are shifting and increasing in areas.

I would say based upon a review of all events and evidence that the liklihood of a quake beneath Mexico City has increased

Ed Chesky

Quake rattles Mexico City; no reports of injures

http://www.billingsgazette.com/index.php?id=1&display=rednews/2004/06/14/build/world/68-mx-quake.inc

This quake was 330 miles away from Mexico City it preceded the current eruption at Popocatepetl

Ed Chesky

We have had tidal induced quakes in Japan and off the coasat of New Zealand, the quakes occured slightly after perigee for the closest approach of the moon this season on previously pre-stressed faults.

forces during perigee built then released

As Professor of Geology, who wishes to remain anonymous, I feel that Edward Chesky, should be nominated for an international award for earthquake analysis and warning. His work is seminal in nature and likely to lead us to greater understanding of geologic and gravitational forces.

At a minimum he should be recognized for outstanding service to his country and the world, in the area of geometry, military service and theoretical gravitational force interaction with the Earth’s crust.

I thank you professor for your kind words and assessment.

Perhaps one day I will be recognized for my service to my country.

Unfortunately like many others, I have run a foul of the current administration and as a result lost my career as an intelligence officer due to an effort by mid-level officials, who failed to head my warnings and asessmments of terrorist activities, whe simple follow-up would have led then to the 9-11 attackers prior to 9-11 and the Ryhad bombers. They swept the information under the rug to spare them embarasment of failing to do their job. In halls of power that is a failing that can never be admitted because the people would demand justice for the dead and the end of the official's career.

As I sit here, just back from a movie comedy I ponder what those intelligence personnel that failed to head me, after I have now proved I can trisect angles and perform predictive analysis despite being handicaped are thinking and doing.

I suspect they stare at my file, surveillence video and taped conversations, along with internet surfing history and the like and consider the fact the world knows of their failures.

I know this site is read around the world and translated into other languages...

I have many friends and many enemies in the intelligence services....

To my friends I wish you well to my enemies...I survived the drugs, poisons and bio-weapons...I have seen the other side and know what waits for you and the terrorists...On my way back to life I walked through hell itself and was given a free pass...something you will never know....

Ed Chesky

The recent swarm of earth quakes along the plate that includes Sumatra has me concerned. All of the quakes took place on the plate boundry, which until I get and update on the graviational buldge at the earth's equator, I believe is still being subjected to gravitational stress.

As a rough guesstimate I would be on the alert for further earthquakes within the next 72-96 hours in the 5 plus magnitude ragne just to be safe.

Ed Chesky

Earth's Tides Set Off Quakes

http://www.wired.com/news/technology/0,1282,65442,00.html

What I have been doing is refining this with a gravity model.

:)

Ed Chesky

Magnitude 5.1 - VANUATU
2005 November 29 03:02:22 UTC

I expect further crustal boundry quakes. When I am not sure but would be on the alert for them

Ed Chesky

As I sit here assesssing gravitational stresses from my gravitational model. I think back to the SAIC Corp and CDR DIA, CDR JAC Molesworth, Director NSA and Director CIA that had me running about he world breaking spy networks as an involuntary agent and denied me my security clearence.

I note we great geometrists also have a history of serving as diplomatic specialists. A consulate or ambassidoral position would not be out of line:) LOL

I would only accept such a position if offered.:)

My best to the Intelligence Corps. I would consider lecturing at the National Defense College. I think I could find some subjects of interest

Ed Chesky

As I sit here I am reviewing a job offer from a major international corporation to do computer security work. I will consider it. My preference is to get back behind the podium once again as an instructor.

We shall have to see. I note my illness is a result of chemical exposure in the line of duty and until I worked with the CIA I was fine.

In the old days I would have been given the Medal of Freedom or Congressional Medal of Honor for my work. We shall have to see what will come and what a greatful nation has to say to the current administration.

Ed Chesky

Magnitude 5.5 - MARIANA ISLANDS REGION
2005 November 30 04:54:33 UTC

Ed Chesky

A good Seismic Site

http://www.iris.edu/seismon/

Ed Chesky

I am concerned about graviational forces and the possibility of another quake hitting a populated area. I don't like the swarm of quakes along the pacific crustial boundry that have and are ocurring. I also don't like the activity along the old Great Chilean Quake area

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Chilean_Earthquake

The Great Chilean quake wa a wake up call for us in terms of the stress on the system of systems that make up this planet due to the onset of the melting of the polar caps.

Ed Chesky

Quake jolts northern Iran
Wednesday, November 30, 2005 - ©2005 IranMania.com

This is what I was talking about with regards to a change due to stress on the system of systems

Ed Chesky

Magnitude 6.3 - MORO GULF, MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
2005 November 30 16:53:46 UTC
This occured in conjunction with an M CLass solar Flare.

Ed Chesky

Magnitude 5.1 - OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN PERU
2005 November 30 05:41:42 UTC

Same region as the Great Chilean Quake.

Ed Chesky

One note I ran a series of probability experiments using coin flips and detected a slight shift change in probability in conjuction with the solar flare and earthquake with coin tosses coming up more freqeunt than they should have.

Ed Chesky

Hopes this helps. This experiment was none scientific and may just indicate a local passing quantumn effect that I just happened to catch